CosmoVentures · Tools

SciFi Prediction Benchmark

How well did science fiction anticipate the technologies that followed?

A research benchmark that scores fictional technologies against later real ones by specificity, lead time and mechanism. It shows the kind of evaluation design CosmoVentures brings to AI evaluation and to foresight work.

How scores are built

What is measured Specificity, lead time, functional fit, mechanism and societal role.

Idea

Turn passages into structured predictions

Each entry is represented as a prediction with a domain, description, implied mechanism, social role and an initial specificity estimate.

Estimation

Compare fiction against candidate technologies

The benchmark combines semantic similarity with rule-based domain and phrase overlap to rank plausible real-world counterparts.

Scoring

Reward accuracy, detail and anticipation

Final scores blend existence, functional, mechanistic and societal alignment, then adjust for specificity, novelty, lead time, vagueness and redundancy.

Leaderboard

Average adjusted prediction score by author, from 0 to 100. Select an author to open the profile.

    Author profile

    Domains, subscores and matched technologies

    Select an author from the leaderboard.

    Prediction explorer

    Inspect individual prediction-to-technology comparisons. Scores run from 0 to 100.

      Select a prediction to view the top candidate match and subscore breakdown.

      Looking for something like this?

      CosmoVentures designs and builds interactive pieces for organisations, from a first prototype to a finished guide.

      Discuss a project